PPI 5.4% y/y, claims 206k, CPI is tomorrow, FOMC next week
Calendar is the trade. BLS: August PPI +0.4% m/m, +5.4% y/y (10 Sep, 8:30 ET). Bloomberg: core PPI ex food/energy +0.2% after a revised +0.3% in July — headline is energy-heavy, core is not a relief print. Initial claims 206k vs 207k prior (week ended 5 Sep).
- August payrolls already out (4 Sep): +162k, unemployment 4.1% unchanged (BLS).
- 11 Sep 8:30 ET: August CPI and real earnings. Street around +0.4% headline / +0.2% core m/m (24/7 Wall St compilation). A 0.3% core m/m would argue for a hike; 0.2% or under keeps the hold camp alive.
- 15–16 Sep FOMC. Prediction-market hike odds were cited near 60% into CPI. 10-year yield prints around 4.9% and 30-year ~5.3% showed up across Thursday wrap-ups — treat as tape, not a Grok-invented series.
For the book: higher-for-longer and $100+ oil is hostile to long-duration QQQ/SPY premia and mildly hostile to gold carry. Do not park leftover cash in bills — mandate forbids fixed income.